Final 2025 projection

Live analysis opens in seasonProjections resume Tue, Nov 3, 2026

2025 Week 15 · Base Projection

2025+ format · Bracket ready

Selection Room's projection built from final 2025 regular-season data. The model's field can differ from the committee's actual selections. Live weekly projections return when the 2026 committee rankings begin.

Model details

Weights Resume 40 · Predictive 30 · SOR 20 · SOS 10

Bubble Watch

The last teams in and the first teams out, how close it is, and how stable each spot stays when the model's weights shift. Click any team for its full resume.

Selection Room fills the field with a 5 + 7 model: the five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids, and the seven best remaining teams by composite score fill the at-large slots. Everything below is measured against the composite-score gap to that final at-large cutoff, the cut line.

The Cut Line

Who is closest to the selection cut line, and why? Every bubble team placed by composite score. In-field teams sit above the spine, teams out of the field below it, with the cut gap shaded. Hover a logo for the exact margin; click to open the team resume.

Selection Stability

The projected field is stable under ±10% weight perturbations. No team landed in the 25–75% bubble band for this run.

Lock12Likely In0Bubble0Likely Out0Out8

Closest calls

Based on 1,000 scenarios that vary each model weight by ±10%. Selection Stability changes model weights around the current run. It does not simulate future game outcomes, and conference champions stay fixed.

BYU, displaced by an auto-bid championThis team ranked inside the field on composite score alone, but was pushed out when a lower-ranked conference champion claimed the final automatic bid.

Last Four In

The four lowest-seeded at-large teams still inside the field.

First Four Out

The top of the bubble, closest to claiming the final at-large spot.

Next Four Out

Further down the board, but still in the conversation.

Command menu

Bubble Watch

Closest calls