Methodology
How the composite score, the 12-team field, and the bracket are built.
Every team gets one number between 0 and 1, the composite score, built from four components. Each component is computed from game results only: no polls, no preseason priors, no brand names. The weights below are the exact values used for the current run.
What a team has earned on the field: wins, losses, and the quality of those results this season.
Estimated true team strength: how good the team looks independent of who it has played. Blends margin-aware ratings (Massey) with Elo.
Strength of Record: how impressive this team's win-loss record is given the schedule it actually played.
Strength of Schedule: how difficult this team's slate of opponents was, win or lose.
The 12-team field follows the CFP's bid structure:
- 5 autoThe five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids no matter where they sit in the rankings. If a champion ranks outside the top 12, it still gets in, displacing the lowest-ranked at-large team.
- 7 at-largeThe seven best remaining teams by composite score fill the at-large slots. There are no conference caps and no eye test. The score is the committee.
Every selection decision (champions identified, bids awarded, displacement, seeding) is logged step by step in the audit trail on the Bubble page, so you can trace exactly why a team is in or out.
The four highest-ranked conference champions get seeds 1–4 and the first-round byes, even when a higher-ranked at-large team exists. This is what pushed teams like a one-loss at-large power below a conference champion on the seed line in 2024.
Teams are seeded 1–12 strictly by ranking. The top four seeds get the byes regardless of championship status; automatic qualifiers keep their bids but not a seeding boost.
In both formats the bracket pods are fixed by seed: 8/9 plays into the 1 seed, 5/12 into the 4, 6/11 into the 3, and 7/10 into the 2. There is no re-seeding between rounds.
Live runs pull schedules, results, and conference championships from the College Football Data API, with team logos and colors from ESPN's public assets. Sample runs use a bundled synthetic season so the whole product works offline. Every page here renders the same either way.
Current run: 2025 week 15 · Live CFBD · engine v3.0.0