Selection Room
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Selection Room

CFP Selection, Explained

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Final 2025 projection
Live analysis opens in seasonProjections resume Tue, Nov 3, 2026

2025 Week 15 · Base Projection

2025+ format · Bracket ready

Selection Room's projection built from final 2025 regular-season data. The model's field can differ from the committee's actual selections. Live weekly projections return when the 2026 committee rankings begin.

Model details

Weights Resume 40 · Predictive 30 · SOR 20 · SOS 10

Rankings

The full composite rankings, with resume, predictive, SOR, and SOS components. Click any team for its full resume and the model's selection case.

Resume vs. Predictive

Who has a strong resume versus a strong predictive profile? Quadrants split at the field medians. Hover a logo for the full breakdown; click to open the team resume.

Resume ahead of projectionComplete profileBelow field medianProjection ahead of resume
↑ Resume · Predictive →Auto bidAt-largeOut of field
136 teams
Rank
Team
Bid
Seed
Composite
Resume
Predictive
SOR
SOS
1
Indiana
AUTO1
0.924
1.000
0.746
1.747
0.537
12-0Why?
2
Ohio State
Big Ten
AT-LARGE2
0.834
0.933
0.771
1.079
0.547
11-1Why?
3
Georgia
AUTO3
0.819
0.928
0.659
1.413
0.527
11-1Why?
4
Texas Tech
AUTO4
0.801
0.898
0.870
0.733
0.492
11-1Why?
5
Oregon
Big Ten
AT-LARGE5
0.773
0.900
0.765
0.866
0.486
10-1Why?
6
Alabama
SEC
AT-LARGE6
0.740
0.797
0.798
0.600
0.560
9-3Why?
7
Oklahoma
SEC
AT-LARGE7
0.718
0.851
0.604
0.836
0.579
9-2Why?
8
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
AT-LARGE8
0.705
0.836
0.727
0.599
0.493
10-2Why?
9
Ole Miss
SEC
AT-LARGE9
0.702
0.898
0.615
0.855
0.456
10-1Why?
10
Texas A&M
SEC
AT-LARGE10
0.689
0.896
0.606
0.757
0.465
10-1Why?
11
BYU
Big 12
OUT—
0.676
0.868
0.502
0.755
0.582
10-2Why?
12
Miami
ACC
OUT—
0.669
0.819
0.721
0.397
0.485
9-2Why?
13
USC
Big Ten
OUT—
0.673
0.775
0.769
0.297
0.526
9-3Why?
14
Vanderbilt
SEC
OUT—
0.644
0.808
0.694
0.409
0.449
9-2Why?
15
Texas
SEC
OUT—
0.630
0.755
0.670
0.446
0.486
9-3Why?
16
Michigan
Big Ten
OUT—
0.613
0.771
0.620
0.299
0.525
9-3Why?
17
Utah
Big 12
OUT—
0.619
0.810
0.654
0.265
0.468
9-2Why?
18
South Florida
American Athletic
OUT—
0.602
0.721
0.737
0.103
0.480
8-3Why?
19
North Texas
American Athletic
OUT—
0.581
0.803
0.572
0.193
0.487
10-2Why?
20
Tulane
AUTO11
0.570
0.823
0.506
0.258
0.485
11-2Why?
21
Washington
Big Ten
OUT—
0.563
0.652
0.744
0.095
0.443
7-4Why?
22
James Madison
AUTO12
0.567
0.838
0.541
0.183
0.441
11-1Why?
23
LSU
SEC
OUT—
0.550
0.613
0.631
0.118
0.575
6-5Why?
24
Illinois
Big Ten
OUT—
0.558
0.685
0.601
0.155
0.537
7-4Why?
25
Missouri
SEC
OUT—
0.553
0.646
0.705
0.129
0.455
7-4Why?
26
Georgia Tech
ACC
OUT—
0.556
0.719
0.667
0.073
0.438
8-3Why?
27
Virginia
ACC
OUT—
0.554
0.739
0.637
0.046
0.454
9-3Why?
28
Boise State
OUT—
0.534
0.654
0.610
0.030
0.534
8-4Why?
29
Iowa
Big Ten
OUT—
0.543
0.667
0.606
0.136
0.512
7-4Why?
30
Louisville
ACC
OUT—
0.534
0.646
0.630
0.070
0.507
7-4Why?
31
Pittsburgh
ACC
OUT—
0.535
0.644
0.669
0.063
0.469
7-4Why?
32
Washington State
Pac-12
OUT—
0.530
0.482
0.785
0.013
0.527
5-6Why?
33
Iowa State
Big 12
OUT—
0.523
0.657
0.617
0.037
0.487
7-4Why?
34
Arizona
Big 12
OUT—
0.531
0.732
0.547
0.086
0.486
8-3Why?
35
Tennessee
SEC
OUT—
0.531
0.652
0.656
0.106
0.448
7-4Why?
36
Duke
OUT—
0.508
0.632
0.527
0.042
0.576
7-5Why?
37
SMU
ACC
OUT—
0.510
0.636
0.628
0.018
0.467
7-4Why?
38
South Carolina
SEC
OUT—
0.508
0.386
0.781
0.004
0.583
3-8Why?
39
Arizona State
Big 12
OUT—
0.502
0.677
0.474
0.108
0.545
7-4Why?
40
NC State
ACC
OUT—
0.486
0.603
0.509
0.056
0.563
6-5Why?
41
Auburn
SEC
OUT—
0.494
0.435
0.742
0.012
0.525
4-7Why?
42
Penn State
Big Ten
OUT—
0.489
0.513
0.653
0.015
0.521
5-6Why?
43
TCU
Big 12
OUT—
0.485
0.661
0.512
0.033
0.495
7-4Why?
44
Mississippi State
SEC
OUT—
0.471
0.442
0.658
0.010
0.550
4-7Why?
45
Navy
American Athletic
OUT—
0.479
0.771
0.338
0.230
0.483
8-2Why?
46
Kansas State
Big 12
OUT—
0.468
0.494
0.656
0.006
0.482
5-6Why?
47
Houston
Big 12
OUT—
0.457
0.705
0.458
0.069
0.409
8-3Why?
48
Florida
SEC
OUT—
0.445
0.402
0.575
0.010
0.618
3-8Why?
49
Wisconsin
Big Ten
OUT—
0.444
0.441
0.534
0.016
0.613
4-8Why?
50
Arkansas
SEC
OUT—
0.438
0.218
0.780
0.000
0.577
1-10Why?
51
Northwestern
Big Ten
OUT—
0.445
0.514
0.552
0.016
0.510
5-6Why?
52
Kennesaw State
OUT—
0.439
0.693
0.385
0.026
0.473
9-3Why?
53
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
OUT—
0.446
0.565
0.590
0.000
0.412
7-4Why?
54
San Diego State
Mountain West
OUT—
0.444
0.652
0.501
0.011
0.404
8-3Why?
55
Nebraska
Big Ten
OUT—
0.436
0.563
0.527
0.009
0.456
6-5Why?
56
Cincinnati
Big 12
OUT—
0.433
0.567
0.493
0.015
0.480
6-5Why?
57
Kansas
Big 12
OUT—
0.430
0.420
0.616
0.002
0.505
4-7Why?
58
Memphis
American Athletic
OUT—
0.435
0.611
0.502
0.010
0.423
7-4Why?
59
Toledo
Mid-American
OUT—
0.433
0.554
0.579
0.000
0.400
7-4Why?
60
Michigan State
Big Ten
OUT—
0.420
0.345
0.678
0.000
0.494
3-8Why?
61
Wake Forest
ACC
OUT—
0.421
0.635
0.399
0.024
0.469
7-4Why?
62
Old Dominion
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.423
0.673
0.401
0.038
0.423
8-3Why?
63
Clemson
ACC
OUT—
0.426
0.548
0.549
0.005
0.417
6-5Why?
64
Texas State
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.413
0.431
0.616
0.000
0.441
5-6Why?
65
UTSA
American Athletic
OUT—
0.415
0.483
0.522
0.005
0.495
5-6Why?
66
Florida State
ACC
OUT—
0.409
0.421
0.576
0.001
0.489
4-7Why?
67
East Carolina
American Athletic
OUT—
0.414
0.630
0.396
0.013
0.463
7-4Why?
68
Kentucky
SEC
OUT—
0.397
0.444
0.461
0.010
0.559
4-7Why?
69
Rutgers
Big Ten
OUT—
0.404
0.431
0.520
0.003
0.526
4-7Why?
70
Baylor
Big 12
OUT—
0.396
0.421
0.539
0.001
0.495
4-7Why?
71
New Mexico
Mountain West
OUT—
0.396
0.668
0.356
0.023
0.407
8-3Why?
72
Hawai'i
Mountain West
OUT—
0.403
0.575
0.482
0.001
0.400
7-4Why?
73
UConn
FBS Independents
OUT—
0.398
0.634
0.477
0.000
0.319
8-3Why?
74
West Virginia
Big 12
OUT—
0.387
0.369
0.503
0.001
0.573
3-8Why?
75
Stanford
ACC
OUT—
0.385
0.387
0.536
0.001
0.507
4-8Why?
76
Minnesota
Big Ten
OUT—
0.387
0.572
0.382
0.017
0.468
6-5Why?
77
Missouri State
Conference USA
OUT—
0.383
0.504
0.466
0.001
0.441
6-5Why?
78
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.393
0.491
0.539
0.000
0.400
6-5Why?
79
Purdue
Big Ten
OUT—
0.370
0.230
0.587
0.000
0.589
1-10Why?
80
Army
American Athletic
OUT—
0.374
0.578
0.387
0.007
0.419
6-4Why?
81
Colorado
Big 12
OUT—
0.373
0.337
0.520
0.000
0.550
3-9Why?
82
UNLV
Mountain West
OUT—
0.375
0.678
0.312
0.013
0.387
9-3Why?
83
Ohio
Mid-American
OUT—
0.369
0.551
0.454
0.002
0.359
7-4Why?
84
UCLA
Big Ten
OUT—
0.358
0.356
0.432
0.001
0.586
3-9Why?
85
Utah State
Mountain West
OUT—
0.364
0.458
0.414
0.002
0.501
5-6Why?
86
Jacksonville State
Conference USA
OUT—
0.355
0.521
0.401
0.000
0.414
7-5Why?
87
Virginia Tech
ACC
OUT—
0.339
0.288
0.468
0.000
0.566
2-9Why?
88
Western Michigan
OUT—
0.349
0.599
0.294
0.006
0.428
8-4Why?
89
California
ACC
OUT—
0.344
0.537
0.357
0.003
0.414
6-5Why?
90
Central Michigan
Mid-American
OUT—
0.342
0.471
0.440
0.000
0.390
6-5Why?
91
Fresno State
Mountain West
OUT—
0.347
0.563
0.390
0.001
0.353
7-4Why?
92
Temple
American Athletic
OUT—
0.338
0.404
0.402
0.001
0.503
4-7Why?
93
Maryland
Big Ten
OUT—
0.332
0.321
0.536
0.000
0.426
3-8Why?
94
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
OUT—
0.330
0.489
0.382
0.000
0.402
6-5Why?
95
Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
OUT—
0.316
0.317
0.433
0.000
0.505
3-8Why?
96
Rice
American Athletic
OUT—
0.315
0.396
0.361
0.000
0.495
4-7Why?
97
Troy
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.320
0.539
0.276
0.001
0.439
7-5Why?
98
Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.322
0.451
0.322
0.000
0.494
5-6Why?
99
Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.317
0.436
0.392
0.000
0.414
5-6Why?
100
Marshall
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.312
0.365
0.410
0.000
0.463
4-7Why?
101
Miami (OH)
Mid-American
OUT—
0.309
0.452
0.339
0.000
0.433
6-6Why?
102
Syracuse
ACC
OUT—
0.297
0.269
0.409
0.000
0.535
2-9Why?
103
UAB
American Athletic
OUT—
0.298
0.316
0.378
0.000
0.516
3-8Why?
104
UCF
Big 12
OUT—
0.297
0.397
0.358
0.000
0.442
4-7Why?
105
Florida International
Conference USA
OUT—
0.290
0.500
0.238
0.000
0.440
6-5Why?
106
Liberty
Conference USA
OUT—
0.290
0.266
0.450
0.000
0.469
3-8Why?
107
Boston College
ACC
OUT—
0.277
0.170
0.499
0.000
0.486
1-10Why?
108
Air Force
Mountain West
OUT—
0.282
0.293
0.388
0.000
0.486
3-8Why?
109
Nevada
Mountain West
OUT—
0.273
0.203
0.473
0.000
0.467
2-9Why?
110
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.280
0.421
0.328
0.000
0.399
5-6Why?
111
Louisiana
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.269
0.426
0.265
0.000
0.432
5-6Why?
112
Colorado State
Mountain West
OUT—
0.253
0.146
0.449
0.000
0.501
1-10Why?
113
Oklahoma State
Big 12
OUT—
0.252
0.102
0.495
0.000
0.496
0-11Why?
114
Buffalo
Mid-American
OUT—
0.248
0.309
0.356
0.000
0.402
4-7Why?
115
North Carolina
ACC
OUT—
0.228
0.309
0.296
0.000
0.414
3-8Why?
116
Tulsa
American Athletic
OUT—
0.234
0.277
0.372
0.000
0.382
3-8Why?
117
South Alabama
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.218
0.274
0.301
0.000
0.419
3-8Why?
118
Delaware
Conference USA
OUT—
0.224
0.402
0.208
0.000
0.395
5-6Why?
119
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
OUT—
0.222
0.248
0.366
0.000
0.387
3-8Why?
120
Wyoming
Mountain West
OUT—
0.219
0.257
0.343
0.000
0.394
3-8Why?
121
San José State
Mountain West
OUT—
0.217
0.197
0.356
0.000
0.444
2-9Why?
122
New Mexico State
Conference USA
OUT—
0.208
0.246
0.326
0.000
0.394
3-8Why?
123
Eastern Michigan
Mid-American
OUT—
0.214
0.311
0.284
0.000
0.384
4-7Why?
124
Kent State
Mid-American
OUT—
0.204
0.318
0.251
0.000
0.385
4-7Why?
125
App State
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.200
0.339
0.222
0.000
0.380
4-7Why?
126
Akron
Mid-American
OUT—
0.198
0.285
0.323
0.000
0.321
4-7Why?
127
Bowling Green
Mid-American
OUT—
0.198
0.227
0.335
0.000
0.376
3-8Why?
128
Oregon State
Pac-12
OUT—
0.187
0.152
0.294
0.000
0.481
1-10Why?
129
UL Monroe
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.175
0.192
0.278
0.000
0.417
2-9Why?
130
Charlotte
American Athletic
OUT—
0.153
0.095
0.245
0.000
0.506
0-11Why?
131
Sam Houston
Conference USA
OUT—
0.152
0.154
0.266
0.000
0.408
2-10Why?
132
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
OUT—
0.144
0.155
0.271
0.000
0.375
2-9Why?
133
Georgia State
Sun Belt
OUT—
0.142
0.078
0.224
0.000
0.518
0-11Why?
134
Ball State
Mid-American
OUT—
0.121
0.241
0.113
0.000
0.392
3-8Why?
135
UTEP
Conference USA
OUT—
0.087
0.087
0.190
0.000
0.384
1-10Why?
136
Massachusetts
Mid-American
OUT—
0.030
0.000
0.138
0.000
0.379
0-11Why?
Updated today
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