2025 Week 15 · Base Projection
2025+ format · Bracket ready
Selection Room's projection built from final 2025 regular-season data. The model's field can differ from the committee's actual selections. Live weekly projections return when the 2026 committee rankings begin.
Weights Resume 40 · Predictive 30 · SOR 20 · SOS 10
The full composite rankings, with resume, predictive, SOR, and SOS components. Click any team for its full resume and the model's selection case.
Rank | Team | Bid | Seed | Composite | Resume | Predictive | SOR | SOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | AUTO | 1 | 0.924 | 1.000 | 0.746 | 1.747 | 0.537 | 12-0 | |
| 2 | Ohio State Big Ten | AT-LARGE | 2 | 0.834 | 0.933 | 0.771 | 1.079 | 0.547 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | Georgia | AUTO | 3 | 0.819 | 0.928 | 0.659 | 1.413 | 0.527 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | Texas Tech | AUTO | 4 | 0.801 | 0.898 | 0.870 | 0.733 | 0.492 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | Oregon Big Ten | AT-LARGE | 5 | 0.773 | 0.900 | 0.765 | 0.866 | 0.486 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | Alabama SEC | AT-LARGE | 6 | 0.740 | 0.797 | 0.798 | 0.600 | 0.560 | 9-3 | |
| 7 | Oklahoma SEC | AT-LARGE | 7 | 0.718 | 0.851 | 0.604 | 0.836 | 0.579 | 9-2 | |
| 8 | Notre Dame FBS Independents | AT-LARGE | 8 | 0.705 | 0.836 | 0.727 | 0.599 | 0.493 | 10-2 | |
| 9 | Ole Miss SEC | AT-LARGE | 9 | 0.702 | 0.898 | 0.615 | 0.855 | 0.456 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | Texas A&M SEC | AT-LARGE | 10 | 0.689 | 0.896 | 0.606 | 0.757 | 0.465 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | BYU Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.676 | 0.868 | 0.502 | 0.755 | 0.582 | 10-2 | |
| 12 | Miami ACC | OUT | — | 0.669 | 0.819 | 0.721 | 0.397 | 0.485 | 9-2 | |
| 13 | USC Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.673 | 0.775 | 0.769 | 0.297 | 0.526 | 9-3 | |
| 14 | Vanderbilt SEC | OUT | — | 0.644 | 0.808 | 0.694 | 0.409 | 0.449 | 9-2 | |
| 15 | Texas SEC | OUT | — | 0.630 | 0.755 | 0.670 | 0.446 | 0.486 | 9-3 | |
| 16 | Michigan Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.613 | 0.771 | 0.620 | 0.299 | 0.525 | 9-3 | |
| 17 | Utah Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.619 | 0.810 | 0.654 | 0.265 | 0.468 | 9-2 | |
| 18 | South Florida American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.602 | 0.721 | 0.737 | 0.103 | 0.480 | 8-3 | |
| 19 | North Texas American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.581 | 0.803 | 0.572 | 0.193 | 0.487 | 10-2 | |
| 20 | Tulane | AUTO | 11 | 0.570 | 0.823 | 0.506 | 0.258 | 0.485 | 11-2 | |
| 21 | Washington Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.563 | 0.652 | 0.744 | 0.095 | 0.443 | 7-4 | |
| 22 | James Madison | AUTO | 12 | 0.567 | 0.838 | 0.541 | 0.183 | 0.441 | 11-1 | |
| 23 | LSU SEC | OUT | — | 0.550 | 0.613 | 0.631 | 0.118 | 0.575 | 6-5 | |
| 24 | Illinois Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.558 | 0.685 | 0.601 | 0.155 | 0.537 | 7-4 | |
| 25 | Missouri SEC | OUT | — | 0.553 | 0.646 | 0.705 | 0.129 | 0.455 | 7-4 | |
| 26 | Georgia Tech ACC | OUT | — | 0.556 | 0.719 | 0.667 | 0.073 | 0.438 | 8-3 | |
| 27 | Virginia ACC | OUT | — | 0.554 | 0.739 | 0.637 | 0.046 | 0.454 | 9-3 | |
| 28 | Boise State | OUT | — | 0.534 | 0.654 | 0.610 | 0.030 | 0.534 | 8-4 | |
| 29 | Iowa Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.543 | 0.667 | 0.606 | 0.136 | 0.512 | 7-4 | |
| 30 | Louisville ACC | OUT | — | 0.534 | 0.646 | 0.630 | 0.070 | 0.507 | 7-4 | |
| 31 | Pittsburgh ACC | OUT | — | 0.535 | 0.644 | 0.669 | 0.063 | 0.469 | 7-4 | |
| 32 | Washington State Pac-12 | OUT | — | 0.530 | 0.482 | 0.785 | 0.013 | 0.527 | 5-6 | |
| 33 | Iowa State Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.523 | 0.657 | 0.617 | 0.037 | 0.487 | 7-4 | |
| 34 | Arizona Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.531 | 0.732 | 0.547 | 0.086 | 0.486 | 8-3 | |
| 35 | Tennessee SEC | OUT | — | 0.531 | 0.652 | 0.656 | 0.106 | 0.448 | 7-4 | |
| 36 | Duke | OUT | — | 0.508 | 0.632 | 0.527 | 0.042 | 0.576 | 7-5 | |
| 37 | SMU ACC | OUT | — | 0.510 | 0.636 | 0.628 | 0.018 | 0.467 | 7-4 | |
| 38 | South Carolina SEC | OUT | — | 0.508 | 0.386 | 0.781 | 0.004 | 0.583 | 3-8 | |
| 39 | Arizona State Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.502 | 0.677 | 0.474 | 0.108 | 0.545 | 7-4 | |
| 40 | NC State ACC | OUT | — | 0.486 | 0.603 | 0.509 | 0.056 | 0.563 | 6-5 | |
| 41 | Auburn SEC | OUT | — | 0.494 | 0.435 | 0.742 | 0.012 | 0.525 | 4-7 | |
| 42 | Penn State Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.489 | 0.513 | 0.653 | 0.015 | 0.521 | 5-6 | |
| 43 | TCU Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.485 | 0.661 | 0.512 | 0.033 | 0.495 | 7-4 | |
| 44 | Mississippi State SEC | OUT | — | 0.471 | 0.442 | 0.658 | 0.010 | 0.550 | 4-7 | |
| 45 | Navy American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.479 | 0.771 | 0.338 | 0.230 | 0.483 | 8-2 | |
| 46 | Kansas State Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.468 | 0.494 | 0.656 | 0.006 | 0.482 | 5-6 | |
| 47 | Houston Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.457 | 0.705 | 0.458 | 0.069 | 0.409 | 8-3 | |
| 48 | Florida SEC | OUT | — | 0.445 | 0.402 | 0.575 | 0.010 | 0.618 | 3-8 | |
| 49 | Wisconsin Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.444 | 0.441 | 0.534 | 0.016 | 0.613 | 4-8 | |
| 50 | Arkansas SEC | OUT | — | 0.438 | 0.218 | 0.780 | 0.000 | 0.577 | 1-10 | |
| 51 | Northwestern Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.445 | 0.514 | 0.552 | 0.016 | 0.510 | 5-6 | |
| 52 | Kennesaw State | OUT | — | 0.439 | 0.693 | 0.385 | 0.026 | 0.473 | 9-3 | |
| 53 | Western Kentucky Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.446 | 0.565 | 0.590 | 0.000 | 0.412 | 7-4 | |
| 54 | San Diego State Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.444 | 0.652 | 0.501 | 0.011 | 0.404 | 8-3 | |
| 55 | Nebraska Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.436 | 0.563 | 0.527 | 0.009 | 0.456 | 6-5 | |
| 56 | Cincinnati Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.433 | 0.567 | 0.493 | 0.015 | 0.480 | 6-5 | |
| 57 | Kansas Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.430 | 0.420 | 0.616 | 0.002 | 0.505 | 4-7 | |
| 58 | Memphis American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.435 | 0.611 | 0.502 | 0.010 | 0.423 | 7-4 | |
| 59 | Toledo Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.433 | 0.554 | 0.579 | 0.000 | 0.400 | 7-4 | |
| 60 | Michigan State Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.420 | 0.345 | 0.678 | 0.000 | 0.494 | 3-8 | |
| 61 | Wake Forest ACC | OUT | — | 0.421 | 0.635 | 0.399 | 0.024 | 0.469 | 7-4 | |
| 62 | Old Dominion Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.423 | 0.673 | 0.401 | 0.038 | 0.423 | 8-3 | |
| 63 | Clemson ACC | OUT | — | 0.426 | 0.548 | 0.549 | 0.005 | 0.417 | 6-5 | |
| 64 | Texas State Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.413 | 0.431 | 0.616 | 0.000 | 0.441 | 5-6 | |
| 65 | UTSA American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.415 | 0.483 | 0.522 | 0.005 | 0.495 | 5-6 | |
| 66 | Florida State ACC | OUT | — | 0.409 | 0.421 | 0.576 | 0.001 | 0.489 | 4-7 | |
| 67 | East Carolina American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.414 | 0.630 | 0.396 | 0.013 | 0.463 | 7-4 | |
| 68 | Kentucky SEC | OUT | — | 0.397 | 0.444 | 0.461 | 0.010 | 0.559 | 4-7 | |
| 69 | Rutgers Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.404 | 0.431 | 0.520 | 0.003 | 0.526 | 4-7 | |
| 70 | Baylor Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.396 | 0.421 | 0.539 | 0.001 | 0.495 | 4-7 | |
| 71 | New Mexico Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.396 | 0.668 | 0.356 | 0.023 | 0.407 | 8-3 | |
| 72 | Hawai'i Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.403 | 0.575 | 0.482 | 0.001 | 0.400 | 7-4 | |
| 73 | UConn FBS Independents | OUT | — | 0.398 | 0.634 | 0.477 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 8-3 | |
| 74 | West Virginia Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.387 | 0.369 | 0.503 | 0.001 | 0.573 | 3-8 | |
| 75 | Stanford ACC | OUT | — | 0.385 | 0.387 | 0.536 | 0.001 | 0.507 | 4-8 | |
| 76 | Minnesota Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.387 | 0.572 | 0.382 | 0.017 | 0.468 | 6-5 | |
| 77 | Missouri State Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.383 | 0.504 | 0.466 | 0.001 | 0.441 | 6-5 | |
| 78 | Southern Miss Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.393 | 0.491 | 0.539 | 0.000 | 0.400 | 6-5 | |
| 79 | Purdue Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.370 | 0.230 | 0.587 | 0.000 | 0.589 | 1-10 | |
| 80 | Army American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.374 | 0.578 | 0.387 | 0.007 | 0.419 | 6-4 | |
| 81 | Colorado Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.373 | 0.337 | 0.520 | 0.000 | 0.550 | 3-9 | |
| 82 | UNLV Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.375 | 0.678 | 0.312 | 0.013 | 0.387 | 9-3 | |
| 83 | Ohio Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.369 | 0.551 | 0.454 | 0.002 | 0.359 | 7-4 | |
| 84 | UCLA Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.358 | 0.356 | 0.432 | 0.001 | 0.586 | 3-9 | |
| 85 | Utah State Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.364 | 0.458 | 0.414 | 0.002 | 0.501 | 5-6 | |
| 86 | Jacksonville State Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.355 | 0.521 | 0.401 | 0.000 | 0.414 | 7-5 | |
| 87 | Virginia Tech ACC | OUT | — | 0.339 | 0.288 | 0.468 | 0.000 | 0.566 | 2-9 | |
| 88 | Western Michigan | OUT | — | 0.349 | 0.599 | 0.294 | 0.006 | 0.428 | 8-4 | |
| 89 | California ACC | OUT | — | 0.344 | 0.537 | 0.357 | 0.003 | 0.414 | 6-5 | |
| 90 | Central Michigan Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.342 | 0.471 | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.390 | 6-5 | |
| 91 | Fresno State Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.347 | 0.563 | 0.390 | 0.001 | 0.353 | 7-4 | |
| 92 | Temple American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.338 | 0.404 | 0.402 | 0.001 | 0.503 | 4-7 | |
| 93 | Maryland Big Ten | OUT | — | 0.332 | 0.321 | 0.536 | 0.000 | 0.426 | 3-8 | |
| 94 | Louisiana Tech Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.330 | 0.489 | 0.382 | 0.000 | 0.402 | 6-5 | |
| 95 | Florida Atlantic American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.316 | 0.317 | 0.433 | 0.000 | 0.505 | 3-8 | |
| 96 | Rice American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.315 | 0.396 | 0.361 | 0.000 | 0.495 | 4-7 | |
| 97 | Troy Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.320 | 0.539 | 0.276 | 0.001 | 0.439 | 7-5 | |
| 98 | Georgia Southern Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.322 | 0.451 | 0.322 | 0.000 | 0.494 | 5-6 | |
| 99 | Coastal Carolina Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.317 | 0.436 | 0.392 | 0.000 | 0.414 | 5-6 | |
| 100 | Marshall Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.312 | 0.365 | 0.410 | 0.000 | 0.463 | 4-7 | |
| 101 | Miami (OH) Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.309 | 0.452 | 0.339 | 0.000 | 0.433 | 6-6 | |
| 102 | Syracuse ACC | OUT | — | 0.297 | 0.269 | 0.409 | 0.000 | 0.535 | 2-9 | |
| 103 | UAB American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.298 | 0.316 | 0.378 | 0.000 | 0.516 | 3-8 | |
| 104 | UCF Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.297 | 0.397 | 0.358 | 0.000 | 0.442 | 4-7 | |
| 105 | Florida International Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.290 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.000 | 0.440 | 6-5 | |
| 106 | Liberty Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.290 | 0.266 | 0.450 | 0.000 | 0.469 | 3-8 | |
| 107 | Boston College ACC | OUT | — | 0.277 | 0.170 | 0.499 | 0.000 | 0.486 | 1-10 | |
| 108 | Air Force Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.282 | 0.293 | 0.388 | 0.000 | 0.486 | 3-8 | |
| 109 | Nevada Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.273 | 0.203 | 0.473 | 0.000 | 0.467 | 2-9 | |
| 110 | Arkansas State Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.280 | 0.421 | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.399 | 5-6 | |
| 111 | Louisiana Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.269 | 0.426 | 0.265 | 0.000 | 0.432 | 5-6 | |
| 112 | Colorado State Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.253 | 0.146 | 0.449 | 0.000 | 0.501 | 1-10 | |
| 113 | Oklahoma State Big 12 | OUT | — | 0.252 | 0.102 | 0.495 | 0.000 | 0.496 | 0-11 | |
| 114 | Buffalo Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.248 | 0.309 | 0.356 | 0.000 | 0.402 | 4-7 | |
| 115 | North Carolina ACC | OUT | — | 0.228 | 0.309 | 0.296 | 0.000 | 0.414 | 3-8 | |
| 116 | Tulsa American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.234 | 0.277 | 0.372 | 0.000 | 0.382 | 3-8 | |
| 117 | South Alabama Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.218 | 0.274 | 0.301 | 0.000 | 0.419 | 3-8 | |
| 118 | Delaware Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.224 | 0.402 | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.395 | 5-6 | |
| 119 | Middle Tennessee Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.222 | 0.248 | 0.366 | 0.000 | 0.387 | 3-8 | |
| 120 | Wyoming Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.219 | 0.257 | 0.343 | 0.000 | 0.394 | 3-8 | |
| 121 | San José State Mountain West | OUT | — | 0.217 | 0.197 | 0.356 | 0.000 | 0.444 | 2-9 | |
| 122 | New Mexico State Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.208 | 0.246 | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.394 | 3-8 | |
| 123 | Eastern Michigan Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.214 | 0.311 | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.384 | 4-7 | |
| 124 | Kent State Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.204 | 0.318 | 0.251 | 0.000 | 0.385 | 4-7 | |
| 125 | App State Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.200 | 0.339 | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.380 | 4-7 | |
| 126 | Akron Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.198 | 0.285 | 0.323 | 0.000 | 0.321 | 4-7 | |
| 127 | Bowling Green Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.198 | 0.227 | 0.335 | 0.000 | 0.376 | 3-8 | |
| 128 | Oregon State Pac-12 | OUT | — | 0.187 | 0.152 | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.481 | 1-10 | |
| 129 | UL Monroe Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.175 | 0.192 | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.417 | 2-9 | |
| 130 | Charlotte American Athletic | OUT | — | 0.153 | 0.095 | 0.245 | 0.000 | 0.506 | 0-11 | |
| 131 | Sam Houston Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.152 | 0.154 | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.408 | 2-10 | |
| 132 | Northern Illinois Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.144 | 0.155 | 0.271 | 0.000 | 0.375 | 2-9 | |
| 133 | Georgia State Sun Belt | OUT | — | 0.142 | 0.078 | 0.224 | 0.000 | 0.518 | 0-11 | |
| 134 | Ball State Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.121 | 0.241 | 0.113 | 0.000 | 0.392 | 3-8 | |
| 135 | UTEP Conference USA | OUT | — | 0.087 | 0.087 | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.384 | 1-10 | |
| 136 | Massachusetts Mid-American | OUT | — | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.379 | 0-11 |