Scenario Lab

Test different selection assumptions, from simple presets to fine-grained weight controls, then re-run selection to compare against the base weights. Every result is a projected reordering under those assumptions, not a win probability.

Base run

Selection philosophy

The calibrated base weights: the blend that best reproduced the committee's picks across 2014-2024.

Normalized weights

ScenarioBase

Adjust one or more weights to create a scenario. Base weights match the current run, so there is nothing to compare yet.

Test a selection assumption

Start from a preset, or fine-tune how much the four components drive the composite, then run a scenario to compare against the base run.

After running a scenario, this panel shows

Field changes
Seed changes
Bubble movement
Bracket impact

Command menu

Test a selection assumption

Test a selection assumption