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The honesty layer: how well the model reproduces the committee's rankings, picks the right field under each era's rules, and scores completed games. Measured against history, not asserted.
How the model's output compares to the real CFP Selection Committee across 2014–2024 (11 seasons). This is a retrospective accuracy check on finished seasons. The model is transparent and rules-based, and it will disagree with the committee. Those disagreements are the point. Overlap measures how closely the model aligns with the committee's published selections, not whether those selections were objectively correct.
Seasons in this artifact: 2014–2024
Each season is judged against the playoff format that actually applied that year, not today's rules. See Era-correct rules.
Each season is judged against the playoff format that actually applied that year (4-team, then 12-team), not today's rules.
4/4 fieldExact field match
In 2022, the model produced the correct field size under Top 4 rules (4/4 field overlap).
4/4 fieldExact field match
In 2023, the model produced the correct field size under Top 4 rules (4/4 field overlap).
11/12 fieldSelected AlabamaMissed TennesseeFirst out: Miami vs Alabama
In 2024, the model produced the correct field size under 5+7 champion-byes rules (11/12 field overlap); model added Alabama; model dropped Tennessee.
