Scenario Lab
Explore how weight changes affect projected fields and bracket outcomes.
Scenario Lab lets you adjust ranking weights, compare diffs against the base run, and inspect how bubble teams move in and out of the projected field.
What changes
Scenario Lab reweights the composite ranking inputs (resume, predictive, SOR, SOS) against the same team universe and completed results as the base run. A scenario produces a new stem in the run catalog, updated rankings, a revised projected field, and bracket diffs relative to the base run.
What does not change
Scenario Lab does not simulate future games, injuries, suspensions, or hypothetical championship outcomes. It does not ingest new schedules or rewrite historical scores. The underlying team set and game results stay fixed.
Weight presets
Five named presets give the sliders meaningful starting points:
| Preset | Emphasis |
|---|---|
| Committee-like | The calibrated base weights: the blend that best reproduced the committee's picks across 2014-2024. |
| Resume-heavy | Rewards what teams earned on the field: wins, losses, and quality results dominate the composite. |
| Best-team | Rewards underlying team strength: pick the twelve best teams even when their records lag. |
| SOR-heavy | Rewards records in schedule context: who achieved the most given the slate they actually played. |
| Equal weights | No opinion: all four components count the same, a neutral reference point for the other presets. |
Any slider position works; presets are shortcuts, not the only options. Weights are whole percents that always sum to 100, and the engine defaults collapse to the base run so a no-op scenario cannot launch.
How to interpret diffs
- Field diff: teams added to or dropped from the projected CFP field under the new weights.
- Ranking diff: movement in composite order; large jumps often trace to teams near the bubble cutoff.
- Bracket diff: seeding and matchup changes that follow from the revised top 12.
Compare scenario stems side by side in the run switcher. Scenario suffixes in the catalog keep exports traceable to the base run they were derived from. Already-generated scenarios are listed for one-click comparison, so the page stays useful even without launching anything.
Important
Scenario Lab varies weights only. It is sensitivity analysis on the ranking model, not a game simulator.
Open the app
Use Scenario Lab in the product nav when a base run is loaded. On the hosted site, launching a new scenario requires GitHub sign-in; browsing saved scenarios does not.